Executive Summary

Ammonium Nitrate prices displayed mixed regional movements during the quarter ending September 2025, reflecting divergent supply-demand fundamentals across North America, Asia-Pacific (APAC), and Europe. While prices in the United States softened marginally due to stable supply conditions, import competition, and easing feedstock costs, APAC markets such as Indonesia recorded modest gains driven by tighter inventories and rising production costs. In Europe, particularly the United Kingdom, Ammonium Nitrate prices rose sharply as supply constraints, higher freight and insurance costs, and limited import availability exerted upward pressure on the market.

Globally, Ammonium Nitrate price trends during Q3 2025 were shaped by fertilizer demand seasonality, ammonia and natural gas cost fluctuations, logistical constraints, and regional trade flows. Looking ahead, Ammonium Nitrate price forecasts indicate modest volatility, with seasonal agricultural demand and supply-side disruptions likely to influence pricing into late 2025.

Introduction: Global Overview of Ammonium Nitrate Prices

Ammonium Nitrate is a critical nitrogen-based fertilizer widely used in agriculture, mining, and industrial explosives. Its pricing dynamics are closely linked to ammonia prices, natural gas costs, energy markets, logistics, and regional agricultural cycles. In 2025, Ammonium Nitrate prices remained sensitive to changes in feedstock costs and evolving global trade patterns.

During the third quarter of 2025, the global Ammonium Nitrate market experienced region-specific trends rather than a uniform global direction. While demand from agriculture remained seasonally moderate, production costs, import availability, and inventory levels played a decisive role in shaping Ammonium Nitrate spot prices across major consuming regions.

Global Ammonium Nitrate Price Trend – Q3 2025

On a global level, Ammonium Nitrate prices showed restrained movement during Q3 2025 compared to the volatility seen in previous years. Lower energy cost pressures in some regions offset tighter supply conditions elsewhere. Producers largely adopted cautious pricing strategies amid uncertain downstream fertilizer demand and fluctuating procurement behavior from distributors.

Ammonium Nitrate price indices across regions highlighted the contrasting market conditions: stability in North America, moderate firmness in APAC, and notable price escalation in Europe. These differences underscore the importance of localized factors in determining regional Ammonium Nitrate price movements. 

North America Ammonium Nitrate Prices (USA)

Market Performance and Price Trend

In the United States, the Ammonium Nitrate Price Index declined by 0.52% quarter-over-quarter during the quarter ending September 2025, indicating a largely stable pricing environment. The average Ammonium Nitrate price for the quarter stood at approximately USD 384.67 per metric ton, as reported by industry surveys.

Key Drivers Behind Price Movement

Ammonium Nitrate spot prices in North America softened slightly due to increased import competition and easing feedstock costs. Ammonia prices remained relatively subdued, supported by steady domestic production and manageable natural gas prices. This reduced cost pressure allowed producers to maintain competitive pricing.

Additionally, ample inventories and stable supply conditions limited the scope for price increases. Procurement behavior among fertilizer distributors remained cautious, with buyers avoiding aggressive stockpiling amid uncertain downstream demand.

Outlook and Price Forecast

The Ammonium Nitrate price forecast for North America suggests modest volatility in the coming months. Seasonal agricultural demand fluctuations, potential supply outages, and changes in import flows could influence prices toward the end of 2025. However, absent major disruptions, prices are expected to remain broadly range-bound.

Asia-Pacific Ammonium Nitrate Prices (Indonesia)

Market Performance and Price Trend

In the APAC region, Indonesia emerged as a key market with firmer Ammonium Nitrate pricing. During Q3 2025, the Ammonium Nitrate Price Index in Indonesia increased by 0.60% quarter-over-quarter, reflecting balanced supply-demand dynamics. The average Ammonium Nitrate price for the quarter was approximately USD 500.00 per metric ton, based on national industry benchmarks.

Supply, Demand, and Cost Factors

Ammonium Nitrate spot prices in Indonesia strengthened as inventories tightened and spot availability became constrained in recent months. Domestic producers faced higher input costs, particularly due to firmer ammonia prices and elevated natural gas costs, which pushed up production expenses.

Demand from the agricultural sector remained steady, while controlled supply additions limited excess availability in the market. These conditions allowed sellers to pass on higher costs to buyers, resulting in a modest upward price trend.

Outlook and Price Forecast

The Ammonium Nitrate price forecast for APAC points toward continued moderate firmness, especially if feedstock costs remain elevated. However, any easing in natural gas prices or improved supply availability could cap further upside. Seasonal fertilizer demand will remain a key determinant of price direction in late 2025.

Europe Ammonium Nitrate Prices (United Kingdom)

Market Performance and Price Trend

Europe recorded the strongest price gains during Q3 2025. In the United Kingdom, the Ammonium Nitrate Price Index rose sharply by 5.36% quarter-over-quarter, reflecting significant supply constraints. The average Ammonium Nitrate price was reported at USD 458.33 per metric ton, delivered CFR Southampton.

Drivers of Price Increase

Ammonium Nitrate spot prices in the UK firmed due to tightened import availability and higher logistical costs. Elevated freight rates, increased insurance premiums, and port-related expenses added to landed costs, supporting higher price levels.

Domestic supply limitations and cautious production rates further constrained availability, while seasonal agricultural demand sustained market firmness. European buyers were compelled to accept higher prices amid limited sourcing options.

Outlook and Price Forecast

The Ammonium Nitrate price forecast for Europe indicates continued modest volatility, driven by seasonal fertilizer demand, constrained imports, and ongoing logistical pressures. Any escalation in energy costs or disruptions to trade flows could amplify price risks in the region.

Cost Trends, Logistics, and Trade Flow Impacts

Across all regions, Ammonium Nitrate production costs remained closely tied to ammonia and natural gas prices. While North America benefited from relatively stable energy costs, APAC and Europe faced upward cost pressures. Logistics, freight rates, and insurance costs emerged as critical pricing factors, particularly in import-dependent regions such as Europe.

Trade flows also played a significant role, with import competition exerting downward pressure in North America, while constrained imports supported higher prices in Europe.

Conclusion: Ammonium Nitrate Market Outlook

The quarter ending September 2025 highlighted the region-specific nature of Ammonium Nitrate price trends. While North America experienced stability with slight softness, APAC markets like Indonesia recorded modest gains, and Europe saw pronounced price increases due to supply-side constraints.

Looking forward, Ammonium Nitrate prices are expected to remain sensitive to seasonal demand, feedstock cost movements, and logistical challenges. Market participants should closely monitor energy prices, inventory levels, and trade policies to navigate pricing risks effectively in the coming quarters.

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