October 17th : reports that Detroits offer after 2024 was for four years and le s than $100MM. October 16th : The Tigers are now down to their final season of control over the American Leagues best pitcher. is entering his last year of arbitration and trending towards the largest pitching contract in history if he stays healthy. wrote this evening that Skubal could seek a deal of at least $400MM. Heyman reports that Detroits extension offer last offseason was shy of the $170MM which received from the Red Sox in April. Heyman specifies that the Tigers offer came before Crochet D'Andre Christmas-Giles Jersey s extension. Much will be made of the more than $200MM gap between those two numbers, but that doesnt consider the timing of Detroits offer. The front office certainly wouldnt be under any illusions now that a sub-$200MM proposal would be close. Their previous offer came when Skubal was two years from free agency and before the Crochet precedent. It wasnt clear last offseason that Crochet would command as strong a deal as he did. That contract was nearly $50MM above the previous top extension for a pitcher with between four and five years of service time ( $120.5MM deal with the Mets from 2019). The Red Sox certainly dont have any regrets after Crochets dominant 25 season, but that deal pushed the extension market dramatically forward. While its not clear precisely what Detroit had offered, its safe to presume it was north of the deGrom extension and would have been a record within his service cla s before the Crochet signing. Skubal bet on himself and is in position to truly cash in as a result. Hes going to win his second consecutive AL Cy Young Award after posting a 2.21 ERA with 241 strikeouts acro s 31 starts. He is two and a half seasons removed from the flexor surgery that ended his 2022 campaign. Most importantly, hes now 12 months away from the open market. received the largest guarantee for a pitcher in MLB history when he signed with the Dodgers for $325MM. That was in large part due to his unusual circumstances coming over from Japan. He was an established ace in NPB and widely viewed as one of the two best pitchers (alongside ) who had yet to pitch in MLB at the time. Yamamoto came over before his age-25 season earlier than any MLB ace could accrue the nece sary six years of service time to hit free agency. He commanded a 12-year deal that was three years longer than any other pitching contract. Among domestic free agent pitchers, has the record on his nine-year, $324MM contract with the Yankees. Cole had yet to win a Cy Young but was coming off two straight top five finishes. He hit the market at age 29, while Skubal is on track to become a free agent at 30. Coles deal is six years old, so therell surely be an adjustment for inflation. Coles $36MM average annual value was a record for a pitcher at the time. Its now down to sixth not including the deal on an annual basis. Late-career aces , and have each reached or topped $42MM on two- or three-year contracts. deGromreceived $37MM annually on his five-year deal with Texas, while is making $36.4MM per season from the Dodgers (albeit with deferrals that drop the net present AAV to the $31-32MM range). Those are all free agent precedents. MLBTR contributor Matt Swartz Skubal for a $17.8MM salary in his last arbitration year. Detroit wouldnt get much of a discount on an extension, but a long-term deal this offseason would come with the risk that he suffers an injury next year. The Tigers have signed two contracts above $200MM: free agent deal and franchise-high $248MM extension. Theyre each more than a decade old and came under the ownership tenure of the late Mike Ilitich. Since his son Christopher Ilitch took control of the organization in 2017, theyve signed one nine-figure deal the $140MM addition. Detroit has a relatively clean long-term payroll outlook aside from Baezs $24MM salaries over the next two seasons. has a $20MM player option for 2026, while is signed for $4-5MM for the next four years. [Related Poll: ] Theres enough payroll space that its conceivable the Tigers could make a competitive extension offer to Skubal. If talks dont gain traction, theyd need to decide whether to hold him for a final season or entertain trade po sibilities. Detroit is coming off consecutive playoff berths and spent most of the 25 season in control of the AL Central. Its difficult to envision the Tigers being legitimate contenders in 2026 if they were to trade Skubal, even if they built a return around controllable big league talent. Theres a strong argument for simply holding Skubal in the hope that he carries them to a deep postseason run and making a qualifying offer next winter. If they struggle in the first half, hed be a marquee deadline trade chip. The alternative this offseason would be to follow the respective Red Sox, Padres and Astros precedents with , and . Those teams all traded their superstar before his final season of arbitration. That went terribly for Boston. San Diego did very well on the Soto return and has won at least 90 games in each of the past two seasons. The jury is still out on Houstons trade of Tucker. They got a strong three-player return but came up shy of the postseason this year. Those teams were all navigating short-term payroll restrictions from ownership that shouldnt be an i sue for Detroit with how little money they have on the books. President of baseball operations Scott Harris gave a non-answer when asked about Skubals future during the Tigers end-of-season pre ser on Monday. I cant comment on our players being traded so Im going to respond by not actually commenting on it, Harris said. Tarik is a Tiger. I hope he wins the Cy Young for the second consecutive year. Hes an incredible pitcher and were lucky to have him. Justin Mader Jersey