Executive Summary

The global melamine market experienced mixed performance in the third quarter of 2025, with notable regional variations. In North America, prices softened amid weak construction and nonresidential activity, whereas APAC saw slight upward pressure driven by plant restarts and competitive export dynamics. Europe faced muted trading, constrained by persistent port congestion and sluggish demand, while South America witnessed a steep quarterly decline due to oversupply and weakening downstream procurement. Across regions, the interplay of feedstock costs, inventory levels, logistics constraints, and downstream demand shaped the melamine price index, producing modest volatility and range-bound forecasts for the near term.

Introduction

Melamine is a critical industrial chemical widely used in laminates, coatings, adhesives, and molding compounds. Its pricing is heavily influenced by feedstock urea, construction activity, panel production rates, and global trade flows. Monitoring melamine prices provides key insights for manufacturers, distributors, and end-users to plan procurement strategies and manage costs effectively.

In Q3 2025, the market displayed regional divergence: North America and Europe experienced price softness due to weak construction activity and high inventories, while APAC maintained modest price gains amid controlled supply and restarts. South America saw significant pressure from oversupply and cautious buyer behavior. This article analyzes the melamine price trends, quarterly movements, cost dynamics, and outlook across North America, APAC, Europe, and South America.

Global Melamine Price Overview

The global melamine price index demonstrates both regional variability and the sensitivity of the market to downstream demand and supply-side factors. Prices remain generally range-bound with occasional short-term spikes driven by logistic disruptions, seasonal restocking, or feedstock fluctuations.

North America: Stability Amid Weak Demand

In the USA, the Melamine Price Index decreased by 1.25% quarter-over-quarter, signaling subdued demand from both residential and nonresidential construction sectors. The average melamine price for Q3 2025 was approximately USD 1658/MT.

Spot Price Behavior: Spot prices remained under pressure due to ample domestic inventories, which limited upward movement. Traders offered discounts to move excess stock, while producers maintained steady production rates, minimizing supply shocks.

Production Costs: The melamine production cost trend showed minimal pressure, as urea feedstock prices remained subdued. This helped producers maintain margins despite weak demand.

Forecast: Near-term price movements are expected to remain range-bound, with occasional spikes in the Gulf Coast regions due to seasonal disruptions or logistic constraints. High inventories and muted exports will continue to constrain significant upward pressure.

APAC: Modest Gains Amid Controlled Supply

In South Korea, the Melamine Price Index rose by 1.0% quarter-over-quarter, reaching an average of USD 839.33/MT. The rise was modest, influenced by restarts at regional plants and competitive pressures in export logistics.

Spot Price Behavior: Spot prices remained largely range-bound amid elevated inventories and cautious buyer behavior. Forward contracts were limited, as traders avoided committing to uncertain seasonal demand recovery.

Production Costs: The production cost trend remained muted. Low feedstock urea prices provided minimal upward pressure, keeping overall costs stable.

Demand Outlook: Weak demand persists in construction and panel sectors, with operating rates remaining low.

Forecast: The melamine market in APAC is expected to exhibit modest volatility. Upside remains limited due to oversupply concerns and defensive selling by market participants.

Europe: Decline Driven by Weak Demand and Logistics

In Germany, the Melamine Price Index fell by 4.03% quarter-over-quarter, reflecting weak trading activity and high inventory levels. The average melamine price stood at USD 1379.67/MT.

Spot Price Behavior: Spot offers were muted, with sideways movement tracked by the price index. Persistent port congestion and logistics bottlenecks constrained trading volumes.

Production Costs: Limited pressure was observed in production costs due to soft urea feedstock prices, which helped stabilize operational margins.

Demand Outlook: Downstream sectors such as laminate and board production delayed purchases amid contracting construction activity. Oversupply and sluggish export demand capped any upward momentum in prices.

Forecast: Near-term price gains are expected to be modest, potentially driven by limited September restocking. However, structural oversupply and weak demand continue to pose downside risk.

South America: Steep Declines Amid Oversupply

In Brazil, the Melamine Price Index experienced a significant drop of 12.9% quarter-over-quarter, with average prices at USD 825.67/MT. Oversupply and cautious downstream procurement were the main contributors.

Spot Price Behavior: Despite occasional firmness mid-September, supported by localized panel demand, spot prices largely remained subdued.

Production Costs: Costs softened as weak urea feedstock prices in China reduced CFR support, further enabling competitive pricing from Asian exporters.

Demand Outlook: Weak construction activity and low panel operating rates constrained purchasing decisions. Buyers remained cautious, limiting aggressive procurement.

Forecast: Near-term stability is expected, with limited upside potential as persistent competitive offers from Asia continue to influence domestic pricing.

Key Factors Influencing Melamine Prices

1. Feedstock Costs: Urea prices remain a central determinant for production costs. In Q3 2025, subdued urea prices contributed to stable or easing production costs across major regions.
2. Construction and Panel Demand: Housing, nonresidential construction, and panel sectors drive melamine consumption. Weak activity in North America, Europe, and South America pressured prices.
3. Inventories: High domestic and regional inventories constrained price increases and led to defensive selling by traders.
4. Logistics and Exports: Port congestion in Europe, Gulf Coast disruptions, and competitive Asian export offers impacted regional price dynamics.
5. Seasonal Restocking: Occasional short-term spikes were observed due to seasonal restocking, particularly in APAC and North America.

Global Market Outlook

Looking ahead, melamine prices are expected to remain range-bound with limited volatility. Key drivers will include:

• Regional Demand Recovery: Any rebound in construction or panel activity could support incremental price gains.
• Feedstock Trends: Fluctuations in urea pricing, particularly in Asia, may influence CFR support and global trade pricing.
• Logistics and Supply Chain Dynamics: Disruptions or improvements in ports, shipping, and freight costs will continue to affect spot pricing and export competitiveness.
• Inventory Management: Producers and traders will maintain cautious selling strategies to avoid oversupply-induced pressure.

Overall, while modest short-term fluctuations are possible, structural oversupply in some regions and subdued demand across major end-use sectors suggest limited upward pressure on global melamine prices in the immediate future.

Conclusion

The Q3 2025 melamine market highlights a divergent regional landscape. North America and Europe faced softening prices driven by weak construction activity and oversupply, APAC saw modest gains amid controlled production and competitive exports, and South America experienced significant declines due to oversupply and cautious buyer behavior.

For industry participants, understanding these dynamics is crucial for strategic procurement, pricing decisions, and managing exposure to volatile markets. While feedstock costs are currently supportive, demand weakness and logistics challenges remain key constraints on significant price appreciation.

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